According to scientific forecasts, climate change is expected to cause more extreme weather events in 2025.
A summary of the main expected phenomena
- Global temperature rise: Based on model estimates, global average temperatures in 2025 are projected to be 1.5-1.67°C higher than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) and to follow a slightly accelerating trend in the longer term. This means that 2025 could be the thirteenth consecutive year in which global temperature rises exceed 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
- Heat waves and droughts: Climate change may increase the intensity and frequency of heat waves, especially in Europe. In the Mediterranean, the Iberian Peninsula, southern France and the Balkans, prolonged droughts are expected, which could negatively affect agriculture and water supply. A clear trend in recent decades has been for heat waves to become more frequent, longer and more intense, particularly in the Mediterranean regions of the world, North America and Asia. The global temperature increase is directly linked to an increase in the frequency of heat waves.
More energy in the atmosphere = greater likelihood of extreme events.
Climate models consistently confirm that heat waves are becoming more frequent, and this is no longer just an assumption, but a fact supported by observations. - Severe storms and floods: Heat waves are often associated with violent storms that lead to flash floods. These phenomena have a major impact not only on the environment, but also on society and the economy.
- Health impacts: Extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts, can negatively affect the health of the population. Children under 4 years of age, the over 65s, overweight people and bedridden patients are particularly vulnerable. Expected high temperatures during heat waves will increase the number of excess deaths and emergency calls.
- Economic risks: The economic risks of climate change are often underestimated. Extreme weather events, such as storms, droughts and forest fires, can cause significant economic losses, affecting agriculture, infrastructure and health.
The trends clearly show an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, which calls for increased adaptation and mitigation measures.
Average annual temperatures continue to rise
The global average temperature is rising steadily on an annual basis, and once it has crossed the 1.6°C threshold, it will not return to lower levels in the short term, even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were to stop completely from tomorrow. This is due to the slow response of the climate system and the long atmospheric residence time of GHGs already emitted.
Why wouldn't temperatures fall immediately?
- Long lifetimes of GHGs: Carbon dioxide (CO₂) remains in the atmosphere for up to several hundred years and methane (CH₄) for 10-12 years, so the temperature raising effect of existing emissions will continue.
- Ocean heat storage: The oceans have absorbed huge amounts of heat in recent decades. This heat is slowly released and continues to warm the atmosphere, even if emissions stop immediately.
- Climate system inertia: The slow rate of adaptation of the Earth's climate system means that the existing warming trend will continue in the coming decades, even if radical emissions cuts are implemented.
What does it mean?
A global average temperature increase of 1.6°C above the limit indicates that we could reach a new critical threshold, which could trigger chain reactions in the climate system, for example:
- Faster permafrost melting, further increasing methane emissions.
- Retreat of ice sheets and glaciers, which accelerates sea level rise.
- Biosphere changes, such as the Amazon rainforests approaching irreversible degradation.
Why is it important to act now?
Although the existing temperature rise cannot be reversed in the short term, it is possible to slow and stabilise further increases in the long term if:
- Radically reducing emissions.
- Increase the capacity of natural carbon sinks (afforestation, deforestation, soil regeneration).
- Promote the use of innovative technologies.
The impacts of climate change in 2025 will be driven mainly by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities, amplified by decades, even centuries, of processes.
Main causes and drivers
Al Gore is 100% right! The Earth cannot last much longer. Just look at Los Angeles or the UK...
„And the amount now being accumulated contains as much additional heat as would be released daily by the explosion of 750,000 first-generation atomic bombs on Earth.”
(Al Gore - 2025)
1. Main cause: greenhouse gas emissions
Anthropogenic GHGs are the primary cause of global temperature rise:
- Carbon dioxide (CO₂): The combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) in power generation, transport and industry is the main source of CO₂ emissions.
- Methane (CH₄): Methane released from agricultural activities (livestock, rice production), landfills and oil and gas extraction plays a significant role.
- Nitrous oxide (N₂O): Agricultural fertiliser use and industrial processes emit N₂O.
- Industrial gases: Fluorinated gases (e.g. HFCs, PFCs, SF₆) in industry and refrigeration systems.
2. Critical driving factors.
a) Energy demand and fossil energy dominance
The energy hunger of a growing global population and economic development is increasing the use of fossil energy sources. Although the share of renewable energy sources (solar, wind) is increasing, fossil fuels continue to dominate.
b) Overexploitation of resources
Industrial production and consumption exceed the Earth's regenerative capacity. Increasing production leads to more GHG emissions.
c) Agriculture and food production
Intensive agriculture produces significant emissions of methane and nitrogen oxides. Livestock production, especially beef demand, plays a major role in methane emissions.
d) Urbanisation
The growth of cities leads to an increase in energy and resource demand. Concrete jungles also cause a thermal insulation effect, which further increases heating at local level.
3. Feedback mechanisms of natural systems
The effects of climate change are amplified by natural feedback processes:
- Melting of ice sheets: Ice reflects sunlight (albedo effect), but as it melts, darker surfaces are formed which absorb more heat.
- Melting permafrost: Methane and CO₂ stored in frozen ground are released, further increasing the greenhouse effect.
- Ocean warming: Warmer water can absorb less CO₂, further increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
4. Short-term factors for 2025
El Nino
The El Nino weather event is expected to further increase warming in 2024-2025 by bringing warmer ocean water to the surface, which releases more heat into the atmosphere.
Extreme weather events
Heat waves, droughts, intense rainfall and storms are expected to become more frequent as warming has already reached a global average of around 1.6°C above pre-industrial revolution levels.
5. The role of social and economic systems
The current linear economic model (extraction-production-waste) is unsustainable. The transition to a circular economy is slow. Many countries are not taking sufficient action to curb climate change. There are obstacles to meeting ambitious targets (e.g. 1.5°C limit).
6. Why is 2025 critical?
Warming and extreme weather events are no longer future threats but present realities. Scientists say the next few years are crucial to halting climate change. If emissions are not reduced rapidly, the consequences could be irreversible.
Climate change in 2025 is also mainly caused by human activity, which could be exacerbated by natural feedback mechanisms and short-term weather events. Curbing these changes depends on rapid and drastic reductions in GHG emissions and the uptake of sustainable technologies and lifestyles.
Link to my carbon footprint
The problems and drivers mentioned above clearly point to the need to reduce the carbon footprint. The carbon footprint measures the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by individuals, companies or nations. Action at both individual and societal levels is key to mitigating climate change:
- Accurately calculating the carbon footprint helps identify the largest sources of emissions.
- By raising awareness, energy efficiency, the use of renewable energy and sustainable consumption patterns can be encouraged.
- Circular economy solutions and innovative technologies should be promoted to reduce emissions.
Overall, reducing the carbon footprint and promoting sustainable practices are essential to avoid the severe consequences of climate change, especially in the critical years ahead.
What is a Carbon Footprint?
The carbon footprint measures the total amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted directly or indirectly by individuals, organizations, products, or even countries.
It is typically expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e), which includes not only carbon dioxide (CO₂) but also other greenhouse gases like methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), based on their contribution to global warming.
This encompasses energy consumption, transportation, waste management, and other activities. Reducing the carbon footprint is essential in the fight against climate change.
A company’s carbon footprint is the total amount of greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide) emitted as a result of its activities. For most businesses, a significant portion of this footprint stems from energy consumption—powering offices, running production processes, and operating transportation fleets.
Examples of carbon footprints vary significantly across industries:
- A technology company's footprint might be dominated by energy use in data centers and employee commuting.
- In manufacturing, production processes and transporting raw materials can result in significant emissions.
- For a retail chain, the largest carbon emissions often come from the supply chain and customers traveling to stores.
In summary, a company’s carbon footprint is a mix of direct (Scope 1), indirect (Scope 2) and value chain (Scope 3) emissions. While Scopes 1 and 2 cover on-site fuel use and purchased energy, Scope 3—encompassing suppliers, products, and customers—often presents the greatest opportunity to reduce overall carbon emissions.
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